The curious case of Jose Reyes

Entering this offseason Jose Reyes will become a free agent. Reyes would be considered by the casual fan as the lone bright spot of this foul season that was the 2011 New York Mets.  You would assume with a cannon arm, and impressive foot speed, Reyes would be a star defensively. Yet he rates as just an average defender on defensive metrics. Just as worrisome, however, is the disappearance of his walks, and plummeting OBP. From 2006-2009, Jose Reyes OBP was between .354-.358 due to a walk rate hovering around 10%. In 2010 he abandoned walks almost completely and his walk rate dropped to 5%, causing his OBP to be atrocious at .321. Then the contract year hit. Reyes rebounds like Rocky Balboa after his first fight with Clubber Lang and has a nearly career year.

But which Jose Reyes will a team be dropping over $100 million on in the next few months?

The .337 batting average this year looks nice, but even with that, he is a career .292 hitter. His SB totals are fading faster than Obama approval ratings. Then the two trickiest issues of all, can he stay healthy for a full season any more. And does a franchise really want to back up a truck full of money for a clown that bunts for a base hit his first at-bat and then take himself out of a game to try and win the batting title? Is that a small issue that is being blown up, or is a snapshot of the kind of character Jose Reyes really has?

The bottom line is this: You are getting a non-leader, average fielder, career .292 hitter, slowly declining in speed, who hasn’t had an injury free season since 2008. Is that something you want to put $100+ million investment in? Reyes is exciting, he will improve attendance some, his name will move some merchandise, but this isn’t a franchise player.  This isn’t a cornerstone. This isn’t a clubhouse leader.

This is a bad investment, who some half baked, desperate GM, who knows the clock is ticking, will dump a fortune on Reyes. This happens EVERY season (Werth, Wells (2x), Crawford, etc). So we can rule out the Mets getting any kind of discount, and Sandy Alderson is currently too secure in his job to do anything Omaresque just yet.

Leaders for Jose:

1. Nationals: Rizzo is trying very hard to move the Nats into the ‘Big Boy’ league.
2. Boston: The new Yankees for big dumb signings
3. Giants: They need so much help hitting and SS is wide open
4. Tigers: Another great fit
5. Angels: Now that Reagins is gone, probably not really

Whoever ends up with Jose, is going to be in for a very up and down relationship, and as per most long term deals they will HATE the last 2-3 years of the deal.

Tags: 2011 Free Agents, Jose Reyes, New York Mets